Forecasting River Ice Breakup in Yukon Communities

Phase I of this project (2022-2024) was funded by the Water Resources Branch, Government of Yukon, and ArcticNet’s North-by-North program. The Tr’ondëk Hwëch’in Government provided in-kind support through the deployment and retrieval of monitoring equipment along the Tr’ondëk (Klondike River).

Phase II of this project (2024-2028) became possible with funding provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy and Hydrologic Prediction and Innovation Program (ECCC-NASHPI). Other contributors include the University of Alberta’s Civil and Environmental Engineering Department and the Government of Yukon.

Project description:

Floods represent the costliest hazard in Canada. Among flooding processes (e.g., urban, fluvial, coastal), breakup ice jams are part of the hydrological reality along cold region rivers. Climate change is leading to shorter winter periods, but this does not simply translate into thinner (i.e., more fragile) ice covers and to fewer ice jams. Severe ice jams have been reported in recent years across the North, including at Fort Simpson (2021), Hay River (2022), Fort McPherson (2023), Forty-Mile (2023), and Rock Creek (2023). It seems that, in some watersheds, the risk of ice jam flooding is increasing over the years whereas flood risk reduction strategies are not proactively identified and implemented.

Despite their occurrence in most watersheds of Canada, ice jam floods have received relatively little attention in the broad field of hydrological modeling and forecasting. This situation is partially explained by the great complexity of this dynamic hydrological process. Whereas open water floods generally only depend on runoff rates (snowmelt, rain, glacier melt), ice jams are controlled by mechanical variables associated with the ice cover resistance. Ice jams form every spring in ice-affected rivers, yet their timing, intensity and location still extremely challenging to forecast.

The objective of this project is to develop river ice breakup forecast tools that can support decision making as it relates to flood preparation and flood response. Knowledge development about the river ice breakup regime can also support the design and implementation of permanent adaptation measures that will sustainably reduce the risk of flooding while informing resilient development strategies.

Phase I of this project aimed at developing river ice breakup forecast models for the Ch’oodeenjìk (Porcupine River) at Old Crow and for the Chu kon’ dëk (Yukon River) at Dawson, and it also included an exploratory work to better understand river ice breakup patterns and environmental controls along the Tr’ondëk (Klondike River) near Dawson. Three reports have been produced of the Water Resources Branch of the Government of Yukon.

Phase II of this project involves testing the performance of (and improving) existing tools, developing new models that will support river ice breakup forecasting, and applying a similar approach to other locations, including Ross River, one of several communities in Yukon that can be affected by severe ice jams at the end of winter.

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